An early beta hCG test does predict your risk of miscarriage

That first glimpse of two pink lines–can it be?–and your heart start to pound with excitement. You’re pregnant!

But after a few moments of celebration, you descend back to earth. Okay, you’re pregnant, but for how long? Will this pregnancy stick?

You have entered a new, more hopeful limbo than the much bemoaned two-week wait. But it’s still no picnic.

We all know that miscarriage is very common, especially early in pregnancy. And for most women, good info about viability does not come until the first ultrasound, usually performed at 8-10 weeks.

Undergoing fertility treatments is less fun than a hangover. But they have one silver lining: Once pregnant, you receive information about your chances of a healthy pregnancy much earlier, from your “betas”–blood tests of your beta hCG (Human Chorionic Gonadotropin) levels.

What is HCG (Human Chorionic Gonadotropin)?

Embryos produce hCG once they implant. This hCG then passes into mom’s bloodstream to help maintain the uterine lining and keep progesterone levels high, allowing the pregnancy to progress.

During the first trimester, blood levels of HCG rises quickly. They usually double every 48 hours, until reaching a peak around 20 weeks. After this peak, they begin a slow decline.

Predicting ongoing pregnancy with HCG

The level of hCG in your blood predicts your chances of an ongoing pregnancy–which researchers usually define as one that lasts through the first 8-12 weeks.

The table below summarizes findings from several IVF-based studies which tracked pregnancy outcomes by hCG levels.

Note: The numbers below only apply to singleton pregnancies. Twin pregnancies typically have much higher hCG levels, and therefore these thresholds may not apply.

Screen Shot 2018-05-16 at 1.09.19 PM

When comparing your test results, pay close attention to the post-retrieval or post-transfer date listed in the Day tested column. Some studies report by day from egg retrieval (post retrieval). Others report from day after blastocyst or embryo transfer (post transfer). HCG rises rapidly in early pregnancy, so whether a specific beta is a positive or negative signs depends on precisely when hCG was measured.

The hCG threshold for likely viability rises with each day. As one research team that examined hCG levels on different days post-retrieval reported “hCG samples … were taken on day 14, 15 or 16 after oocyte retrieval in 204 patients undergoing IVF or ICSI were analyzed… optimal cut-off levels to discriminate between viable and non-viable pregnancies… were found at 76, 142 and 223 IU/L for day 14, 15 and 16, respectively”

Interpreting your betas

If your betas are above the numbers listed in the table above, congratulations! Your pregnancy has a very high chance of continuing through the first trimester.

Note, however, that HCG is not as good of an indicator of a live birth as it is of avoiding a first trimester miscarriage–so you’re not completely off the worry hook yet. Your first ultrasound will provide better information than your beta about your chances of a live birth.

What if your hCG is below those in the above table? Don’t panic. In all of these studies about 40-60% of the pregnancies with values below the stated thresholds were ongoing. In other words, hCG was better at predicting a good outcome than it was at predicting  a bad outcome. Because hCG levels vary a lot from pregnancy to pregnancy, there is no strict cutoff for determining viability.

HCG Levels during the first trimester

Normal HCG levels range widely in early pregnancy.

Below are the ranges of beta hCG by week following your Last Menstrual Period (LMP), according to the American Pregnancy Association.

  • 3 weeks LMP: 5 – 50 mIU/mL
  • 4 weeks LMP: 5 – 426 mIU/mL
  • 5 weeks LMP: 18 – 7,340 mIU/mL
  • 6 weeks LMP: 1,080 – 56,500 mIU/mL
  • 7 – 8 weeks LMP: 7, 650 – 229,000 mIU/mL
  • 9 – 12 weeks LMP: 25,700 – 288,000 mIU/mL
  • 13 – 16 weeks LMP: 13,300 – 254,000 mIU/mL
  • 17 – 24 weeks LMP: 4,060 – 165,400 mIU/mL
  • 25 – 40 weeks LMP: 3,640 – 117,000 mIU/mL

Serial hCG measurements

What does often indicate an impending miscarriage, however, are hCG levels that fail to double every 48 hours or that drop over time. This nearly always indicates a failing pregnancy. It can also indicate an ectopic pregnancy–an pregnancy that has implanted somewhere other than the uterus.

One final caveat: All of the above studies involved women undergoing IVF. We cannot say whether these numbers apply to women undergoing IUI or who conceived naturally.

Special case: Frozen embryo transfers

Some but not all studies find that HCG levels are lower and less predictive of miscarriage after frozen (as opposed to fresh) embryo transfers.

Screen Shot 2018-05-17 at 12.07.56 PM.png

In Xue’s 2014 study, nearly 100% of pregnancies that made it past 12 weeks had day 12 hCG levels about 50 IU/L, as shown in the table below. But many miscarriages also had hCG levels above this threshold; 50 IU/L did not discriminate well between ongoing pregnancies and miscarriages.

A higher threshold of 135-147 IU/L performed better. Nearly 94% of pregnancies with hCG levels above this threshold were ongoing.

Have you had a beta? What was it and how did your pregnancy turn out?

(If you have had a first trimester ultrasound, you may wish to check out my post on miscarriage risk by week, by fetal heart rate, and by other risk factors like your age.)


Porat S, E. al. Early serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin in pregnancies after in vitro fertilization: contribution of treatment variables and prediction of long-term pregnancy outcome.

Kim, J. H. et al. Serum biomarkers for predicting pregnancy outcome in women undergoing IVF: human chorionic gonadotropin, progesterone, and inhibin A level at 11 days post-ET. Clin. Exp. Reprod. Med. 39, 28 (2012).

Kim, Y. J. et al. Predictive value of serum progesterone level on β-hCG check day in women with previous repeated miscarriages after in vitro fertilization. PLoS One 12, (2017).

Kumbak B, E. al. Serum oestradiol and beta-HCG measurements after day 3 or 5 embryo transfers in interpreting pregnancy outcome.

Papageorgiou TC, E. al. Human chorionic gonadotropin levels after blastocyst transfer are highly predictive of pregnancy outcome.

Xue Y, E. al. Effect of vitrification versus slow freezing of human day 3 embryos on β-hCG levels.

Ochsenkühn R, E. al. Predictive value of early serum beta-hCG levels after single blastocyst transfer.

Lambers MJ, E. al. Optimizing hCG cut-off values: a single determination on day 14 or 15 is sufficient for a reliable prediction of pregnancy outcome.

Sung N, Kwak-Kim J, Koo HS, Yang KM. Serum hCG-β levels of postovulatory day 12 and 14 with the sequential application of hCG-β fold change significantly increased predictability of pregnancy outcome after IVF-ET cycle. Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics. 2016;33(9):1185-1194.

Author: Amy Kiefer

As a former research scientist and proud mama of three little munchkins, I love digging into the research on all things baby-related and sharing it with my readers.

9 thoughts on “An early beta hCG test does predict your risk of miscarriage”

  1. I was recently in a state of panic because my hcg was not doubling in 48 hours at levels of 20000+ at 6 and a half weeks. I came across some articles that stated that the doubling time increases as the levels increase. After 6000 miu, the doubling time increases to three days, and after 20000, the doubling time increases to over four days. I don’t have sources to back up these claims, but the articles come up fairly quick on Google. Actually just went in for a “miscarriage query” ultrasound today, and everything was perfectly fine. Heart rate was 135, and it was measuring perfectly on target. Just wondering if there’s any science-backed sources that confirm this doubling time theory, or if I’m just one of the lucky ones (so far)? Thanks

      1. Dear Doctor,
        in our case, 3 embryos (day-5 blastocysts) FET was done on 28-01-2018. Fisrt blood test done on 11th Feb-2019 showed a beta-Hcg of 1309. the next test on 13th Feb was 2755. Is this growth normal? should i do another blood test or wait for ultrasound scan?

  2. @Amy, i love you!

    I hate all those stories with inaccurate data, and this is the first page in over 6 years where I have no questions with the data on it.

    I like to calculate, make predictions, find reasons in science to answer my questions. HCG is one of those topics where so many people talk about, and sometimes it just doesn’t make sense.

    Thank you for taking all this time and making an effort for storing al this data in one spot.

    Now I’m going to search more, I’d like to know if there is a correlation between urine levels and blood levels, eventhough urine is ofcourse an inaccurate source, but… there must be a minimum and maximum in relation to the beta HCG in bloodwork.

    Greetings, Daisy

  3. My daughter is 8 weeks along. They found a Chorionic bump at her 7 week ultrasound so her doctor ordered another HCG level and progesterone level test.
    Her HCG level dropped from 220,455 to 214,171 but some information indicates that your numbers can level or plateau at times. Her doctor is being very cold and just saying to prepare for possible miscarriage. Is a 6000 drop once you have reached that high of a level a sign of impending miscarriage> She also still has awful nausea, breast soreness and crazy sense of smell.

  4. Hey Amy Kiefer,
    Thanks for this great post. A ton of thanks for taking all this time and making an effort for posting all the relevant data on a single blog. This was really an informative post.

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