Lies, Damned Lies, and Miscarriage Statistics

Trying to figure out your chances of miscarrying? Sadly, you are going to have a hard time finding good information. 

Many websites claim to tell you your risk of miscarriage, citing statistics that look like these:

Screen Shot 2015-08-25 at 12.50.51 PM

But problems abound with their numbers.

Problem 1: These sites rarely provide their sources, so you cannot tell whether their information is reliable.

Problem 2: These sites do not breakdown miscarriage risk by other known risk factors, like the mother’s age.

Problem 3: Nearly all these sites derive their statistics from just two small studies, one which tracked 222 women from conception through just the first 6 weeks of pregnancy, and another which tracked 697 pregnancies, but only after a fetal heartbeat had been detected–a key point, because heartbeat detection dramatically lowers the chances of a miscarriage.

The lack of good information frustrated me when I was pregnant, and I bet it frustrates you too. So I have compiled a summary of the best research on risk of miscarriage. Where possible, I break down the risk by…

Edit: I also have a new post on how morning sickness signals a lower risk.

Risk of Miscarriage by Pregnancy Week

Miscarriage risk drops as pregnancy progresses. The risk is highest early in the first trimester. Fortunately, for most women by 14 weeks their chance of a miscarriage is less than 1%.

Miscarriages rates declined between 6 to 10 weeks, according to a study of 697 pregnancies with a confirmed fetal heartbeat:

  • 9.4% at 6 weeks
  • 4.6% at 7 weeks
  • 1.5% at 8 weeks
  • 0.5% at 9 weeks
  • 0.7% at 10 weeks

A similar study of 668 pregnancies with a confirmed fetal heartbeat between 6 and 10 weeks, found a similar decline in miscarriage risk by week:

  • 10.3% at 6 weeks
  • 7.9% at 7 weeks
  • 7.4% at 8 weeks
  • 3.1% at 9 weeks

But for women in their mid to late 30s and early 40s, these studies understate the risk. Even after confirmation of a fetal heartbeat, miscarriage risk remains high for women 40 and older through 12 weeks, according to a study of 384 women 35 and older. 

Screen Shot 2015-08-18 at 11.02.00 AM

Despite the higher risk for this age group overall, a normal ultrasound result from 7 weeks remains a promising sign. Women who entered the study in their 4th to 5th week of pregnancy had about a 35% risk of miscarriage. Women who entered the study later, and who therefore had a normal ultrasound and heartbeat at 7-10 weeks, had a risk under 10%.

Fetal Heart Rate

A fetal heartbeat often indicates a healthy, viable pregnancy. But a fetal heart rate that is too slow can instead signal an impending miscarriage.

The chance of a first trimester miscarriage varies by fetal heart rate, according to a study of 809 pregnancies. The lower the heart rate, the higher the miscarriage risk. (Normal fetal heart rates change with fetal age, so these tables break down the risk by pregnancy week.)

Up to 6 weeks 2 days gestation:

fetal heart rate and miscarriage risk

Data from Doubilet & Benson (1994) Embryonic Heart Rate in the First Trimester: What Is Normal? Journal of Ultrasound Medicine

Between 6 weeks 3 days and 7 weeks 0 days:

Screen Shot 2015-07-27 at 2.58.29 PM

Data from Doubilet & Benson (1994) Embryonic Heart Rate in the First Trimester: What Is Normal? Journal of Ultrasound Medicine

After 7 weeks, the fetal heart rate was at or above 120 beats per minute for almost all ongoing pregnancies.

Miscarriage Risk by Week Before Confirmation of a Heartbeat

Many women will not have an ultrasound and fetal heartbeat confirmation until sometime between 8-10 weeks. What are their chances of a miscarriage before that crucial piece of news?

In a large prospective study of 4,887 women trying to conceive, 4070 became pregnant. Their rate of miscarriage was 4-5% in week 6. By week 7, this risk fell to 2.5%. Rates hovered around 2% per week until week 13, when chances of a miscarriage dipped below 1%

Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 5.19.01 PM

Personal Risk Factors

Your personal characteristics and behaviors alter your miscarriage risk. The most important risk factor, as is well known, is the woman’s age: Miscarriage rates climb as women age, especially after the late 30s. The man’s age matters too, especially after they turn 40.

Risk of Miscarriage by the Woman’s Age

Anne-Marie Nybo Anderson, of the Danish Epidemiology Science Centre led the largest population-based study ever conducted on age and miscarriage. Anderson tracked every “reproductive outcome”– every pregnancy, miscarriage, birth, stillbirth, or abortion–in Denmark between the years of 1978 and 1992–ultimately tracking outcomes of over a million pregnancies.

What did she find? Miscarriage risk rises sharply during a woman’s late 30s and reached nearly 100% by age 45.

Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 8.39.09 AM

Rates of ectopic pregnancy also rose with age:

Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 9.30.27 AM

As did the chances of a stillbirth:

Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 9.30.35 AM

(In Anderson’s study, stillbirth was defined as a loss after 28 weeks. In the U.S., any loss after 20 weeks is usually considered a stillbirth)

Take heart though: as scary as the rise in stillbirths sounds, the risk remains under 1% through age 45.

Anderson’s study’s findings parallel those of another large and well-studied sample: U.S. pregnancies conceived via IVF.

CDC Data, 2010 ART cycles,

CDC Data, 2010, All Non-Donor IVF cycles in the U.S.

As in Anderson’s study of Danish pregnancies, the uptick in miscarriage risk among IVF pregnancies occurs around age 38.

Intriguingly, the overall miscarriage rates among IVF pregnancies is lower than in the Denmark sample. This is probably due to selection effects. Only some women manage to become pregnant through IVF, and embryos transferred during IVF are chosen based on early signs of normal development, upping the odds of a succcessful pregnancy.

Men’s Age

Researchers often ignore the man’s age when studying miscarriage. Most women marry men who are about the same age, so researchers have trouble teasing apart the effects of the woman’s age from the man’s age. 

Fortunately, several studies have now included couples in which either the woman or the man is much older than their partner.

These studies provide a clear and consistent picture: older prospective fathers raise the risk of miscarriage by about 25-50%. One study found an a 60% increase in the odds of a miscarriage if the father was over 40. Another reported a roughly 25% increase in the risk of miscarriage for fathers over the age of 35.

Screen Shot 2015-07-23 at 10.24.08 AM

from Slama et al., 2005. Influence of Paternal Age on the Risk of Spontaneous Abortion. American Journal of Epidemiology

Other studies report similar effects; all showing most marked rise after age 40 (see here and here).

Men and Women’s Combined Age

A young partner can offset some of your personal age-based miscarriage risk, especially if you are a man. Men whose partners are young, under 30, have relatively low chances of miscarriage regardless of their own age, according to large retrospective European study.

For women, alas, young partner only partially offset their age-based risk. Women over 35 with relatively young partners, under age 40, still face double to triple the odds of women in their 20s.

Older partners do, however, compound the risk for women in their 30s. A woman in her early 30s with a partner over 40 has roughly triple the odds of a woman with a partner the same age or younger. 

Risk of Miscarriage After Confirmation of a Fetal Heartbeat

On a more positive note, women in their late 30s and early 40s have a good chance of an ongoing pregnancy after confirmation of fetal heartbeat.

For women over 40, once a heartbeat has been detected at 7-10 weeks, the risk of a miscarriage falls to around 10%. After 20 weeks, the risk plummets to less than 1%.

Screen Shot 2015-08-18 at 11.02.00 AM

How Does a Prior Miscarriage Affect Your Risk of Miscarriage?

Aside from age, the best predictor of whether a woman will miscarry is the number miscarriages she has already suffered. Most websites quote these statistics:

Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 1.04.29 PM

Alleged risk of subsequent miscarriage based on number of prior miscarriages

From these statistics, one prior miscarriage seems inconsequential; while just two prior miscarriages appears to dramatically raise your chances of another miscarriage.

Fortunately, these statistics are too dire for women who have had two prior miscarriages. The outcomes from a study over a million pregnancies paints a much more reassuring picture, at least for women who have had fewer than 3 prior miscarriages

Here’s the risk of a subsequent miscarriage for women who have never given birth before:

Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 9.29.36 AM

And the risk of another miscarriage for women who have given birth before:

Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 9.29.46 AM

The Bottom Line

In early pregnancy, miscarriage risk falls with each passing week, with significant drops around the 7-week mark, and again after the 12-week mark.

Your age, your partner’s age, and your number of prior miscarriages all affect your overall risk of miscarriage. Miscarriage risk rises dramatically after about age 37 for women, and age 40 for men.

References

Ammon Avalos, L., Galindo, C. and Li, D.-K. (2012), A systematic review to calculate background miscarriage rates using life table analysis. Birth Defects Research Part A: Clinical and Molecular Teratology, 94: 417–423. doi: 10.1002/bdra.23014

Cohen-Overbeek TE, Hop WC, den Ouden M, Pijpers L, Jahoda MG, Wladimiroff JW. Spontaneous abortion rate and advanced maternal age: consequences for prenatal diagnosis. Lancet. 1990 Jul 7;336(8706):27-9.

Doubilet PM, Benson CB. Embryonic heart rate in the early first trimester: what rate is normal? J Ultrasound Med. 1995 Jun;14(6):431-4.

Kleinhaus K, Perrin M, Friedlander Y, Paltiel O, Malaspina D, Harlap S. Paternal age and spontaneous abortion. Obstet Gynecol. 2006 Aug;108(2):369-77.

Makrydimas, G., Sebire, N. J., Lolis, D., Vlassis, N. and Nicolaides, K. H. (2003), Fetal loss following ultrasound diagnosis of a live fetus at 6–10 weeks of gestation. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol, 22: 368–372. doi: 10.1002/uog.204

Mukherjee S, Velez Edwards DR, Baird DD, Savitz DA, Hartmann KE. Risk of miscarriage among black women and white women in a U.S. Prospective Cohort Study. Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Jun 1;177(11):1271-8. doi: 10.1093/aje/kws393.

de la Rochebrochard E, Thonneau P. Paternal age and maternal age are risk factors for miscarriage; results of a multicentre European study. Hum Reprod. 2002 Jun;17(6):1649-56

Slama R, Bouyer J, Windham G, Fenster L, Werwatz A, Swan SH. Influence of paternal age on the risk of spontaneous abortion. Am J Epidemiol. 2005 May 1;161(9):816-23.

Tong S, Kaur A, Walker SP, Bryant V, Onwude JL, Permezel M. Miscarriage risk for asymptomatic women after a normal first-trimester prenatal visit. Obstet Gynecol. 2008 Mar;111(3):710-4. doi: 10.1097/AOG.0b013e318163747c.

Wilcox AJ, Weinberg CR, O’Connor JF, Baird DD, Schlatterer JP, Canfield RE, Armstrong EG, Nisula BC. Incidence of early loss of pregnancy. N Engl J Med. 1988 Jul 28;319(4):189-94.

Leave a Reply

  1. The one article you have based your numbers from says it is 1.6 % probability to miscarry (overall) if you are asymptonatic and have confirmed heartbeat. 697 women in Australia were followed over 2 years. 9.4 % of the miscarriages were week 6. Meaning 9.4% of the 1.6%! You have presented it as an overall probability of 9.4% to miscarry from week 6 which is totally wrong. It also said that 45 % (of 1.6 %)miscarried in 2nd trimester. Meaning pretty flat curve from week 8-9 if you are adymptomatic and have seen heartbeat. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18310375

    • The stated risk is for chances of miscarriage at the week of presentation and, admittedly, the abstract is confusing because it uses percentages in two ways: percent kid carrying by week of presentation, and then later by present of total women who miscarried. You can see this by asking yourself: what would 0.7% of 11 look like.

      • Well it says only 11 out of 697 miscarried..if that’s true it can not be 9.4 % chance to miscarry from week 6! And certsinly not 48 % chance to miscarry in the 2nd trimester either..

    • She’s using a study on women over 45 from 24 years ago and SO MUCH has changed since then rendering this study useless in today’s world.

      • I am not sure which study in particular you are referring to, but I am not sure why miscarriage rates would have dramatically changed in the last 24 years. Most miscarriages are caused by chromosomal abnormalities, and this is especially true for older women.

  2. The conclusion says “For women without symptoms, the risk of miscarriage after attending a first antenatal visit between 6 and 11 weeks is low (1.6% or less), especially if they present at 8 weeks of gestation and beyond. Our data could be used to reassure such women that the probability of progressing to later than 20 weeks of gestation is very good.”

    • Hi Runar, I think their abstract is just confusingly written. They followed the outcomes of pregnancies after confirmation of a heartbeat at 6 to 11 weeks. Most of these women were only seen after 8 weeks, when the risk of miscarriage dropped dramatically, making the sample-wide risk low, only 1.6 percent, as you noted.

      They only saw a small number of women at 6 weeks, and 9.4% of these women miscarried. We should certainly take that percentage with a grain of salt, since it is the percentage in only a small number of women. The actual percentage for the general population could be higher or lower.

      This is why I try to point to multiple studies in my post, as most study samples are not very large, especially when you breakdown the risk by age, week, heartbeat, etc.

  3. Yeah i read the full article and those numbers give little meaning if not the article is read! 33 people at week 6? Its like a school class. 95 confidence interval between 0-19.5. And women checking heartbeat at week 11 also..

    • Glad you found the full article! You are right that their numbers are very small. This is true of a lot of the research on pregnancy and breastfeeding. It is always a good idea to be skeptical of articles and blogs that point to only one or two studies, instead of looking at the whole body of research available.

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  5. Amy,
    Thank you for your work in putting this article together. I found the numbers you presented to be more information than anywhere else on the web that I could find. As a 45 year old person in my 7th week of pregnancy (starting tomorrow) you can understand why I’d be scouring the internet, looking for any shred of information to make me feel a little more at ease. You have done this for me, and I appreciate it.
    Kerrie

  6. Thank you. I am 35 and I have had two consecutive miscarriages this year. I am currently 7 weeks 6 days pregnant and I have my first appointment in two days. I am completely stressed and scouring the internet for stats to put my mind at ease. I do have a healthy almost three year old to keep me busy until the appointment. I appreciate the information.

    • I’m so sorry to hear about your losses. Congratulations on this pregnancy, and I will keep my fingers crossed that all goes well at your upcoming appointment.

      As a mother of a nearly 3 year old who seems to be getting exponentially more exhausting, I can see how your first would be a welcome distraction, albeit a tiring one. Especially in the first trimester!

      • Thank you, Amy. Just an update…I also lost this baby. Two of my miscarriages seem to have ended at the same time…towards the end of my 7th week. Since I have now had three consecutive miscarriages the doctor has agreed to do some testing in a month. Do you know where I can get accurate information on what type of testing to ask for? I am praying that something can be done…my doctor did mention age and chromosomal issues due to age? I just turned 35. Again, thank you for the information.

      • I’m very sorry to hear it. I have had some friends go through the same thing. Lots of different things could be going on. One had mild PCOS and was able to have two children by going on metformin and clomid. For another, her husband was the problem, and they conceived via IVF. Another friend had a clotting factor, and needed treatment for that to conceive and carry to term. I am afraid I am not an expert in recurrent loss, but I would definitely try to find a reproductive endocrinologist who specializes in recurrent loss. You may also consider reaching out to Alice Callahan who blogs at Science of Mom; she went through several losses before having her son. She’s very informed and may be able to give you a list of questions to ask.

      • Dear Amy,

        I cannot thank you enough for connecting me with Alice. I sent her an email last night and she already responded with some very helpful information. I feel prepared for my follow up appointment this Friday because she provided me with helpful questions to ask my doctor. Again, thank you so much for your blog, your support, and for connecting me to some really helpful resources. I really appreciated it!

        Best,

        Annie

  7. I am glad I came across your page. I’ve been researching and really coming up with nothing. I am advanced maternal age (43), low beta numbers–never truly doubled, gestational sac measuring over 9 weeks and fetus only measuring 6 weeks 1 day with a heart rate of 69. The ultrasound tech agreed when I said this doesn’t look good but my ob said he is confident that when I come back next week, we’ll have a strong heartbeat. I’m not quite as optimistic as he is from everything I’ve been able to find.

    • Glad this post was helpful to you. I am afraid I’m inclined to agree with your assessment, the betas, the measurements, and the low heartbeat seem concerning. I will hope that your OB proves correct–sometimes these things do seem to work out despite an inauspicious start–and, more importantly, that everything works out for you in the end.

  8. Hello!
    I just found out this week that I am 7 weeks pregnant tomorrow. I miscarried two years ago, and I had a healthy son in 2013. However, because of the miscarriage last year, I have been very paranoid about losing this one. I am 22 and my fiancé is 30, and other than my last miscarriage, I am healthy. My doctors appointment is next week for my 8 week check up and it feels like it is dragging on forever. Anyway, I just wanted to thank you for compiling this information because it really made me feel better about my chances of keeping this pregnancy.

  9. This is wonderful! I am so glad I found your site because I’ve been having issues finding an answer to my question. I had low betas that went up less than 10 % over 2 days at 5+4 and 5+6. Two days later, I had a miscarriage confirmation ultrasound and we heard a strong heartbeat at 123. Last night at 7+1, the heartbeat was 143. In your estimation, would the heartbeats trump the low HCG? Can I take comfort in the statistics that you reference above?

    • Once you have an ultrasound, hcg results go out the window. Information from an ultrasound is much more reliable and important that from hcg numbers. Good luck!

  10. This information is so helpful. Thank you! I had a loss in November at 8+3. I am now pregnant again and between 5+4 and 5+6 weeks, my HCG beta levels went up less than 10% (2600 to 2770). We went for a miscarriage confirmation ultrasound and surprise there was a strong heartbeat of 123 at 6+2. Last night, the HB was 143 at 7+1. Have you seen or heard of any research that would indicate that I was more of risk of miscarrying than what the statistics you have outlined suggest? My doctor insists that after the ultrasound findings, we can ignore previous HCG levels.

    Thank you!

    • A HB on ultrasound at 7 weeks is a much better predictor of a good outcome than HCG.

      Unfortunately, I have not seen any research on whether low HCG early still predicts an increased risk after a HB has been detected, so I cannot say whether your risk is higher after seeing a HB than it would be otherwise. But my understanding is that in some pregnancies, HCG is just low.

      Congratulations on your pregnancy! I will keep my fingers crossed for you.

  11. Thanks so much for this blog. I am just 38, and I have had three losses. I had 2 chemical pregnancies. They did all the testing on me (all very good), removed a polyp, and put me on extra Folic acid and baby aspirin for a heterozygous MTHR gene mutation. After the folic acid/aspirin and surgery, I got pregnant immediately. This was my first clinical pregnancy. It ended in miscarriage at 5 weeks 6 days — this was at the end of February. It was a week behind when we went in for a 6.5 US. We went back to see if it was a dating issue, and it was not. This month I got pregnant again almost immediately. So far, HCG and progesterone are rising. It is still super early (14 dpo), and I will be holding my breathe for 12 weeks. I have done a little bit of research, and it seems that chemical pregnancies are considered different than clinical pregnancies in terms of predicting future losses. As I have had 2 chemical and one clinical, I am wondering (hoping) that I would still be in the 1 miscarriage category on your chart or if my chemicals need to be included in my miscarriage count. Because it seems to make a huge difference in predicting my risk, I would really like to know what you think.

    • The data on previous miscarriages comes from hospital records–and thus probably does not include chemical pregnancies. I will tell you that a friend and coworker of mine had 3 losses before giving birth to two beautiful healthy children. Wishing you the best of luck with this pregnancy–let me know how it goes.

      • I had my 6.5 week US and I measured at 7 weeks! Heartbeat was 144. I was on cloud nine. Doctor said it looked great. Of course, then fertility nurse called to say my progesterone dropped to 10.1. It was moving steadily up 16-17-18 when I was testing before. Testing always happened in the morning before; this was right after lunch. I’ve read things that say it can drop really significantly in a day. Nurse said not to worry; that is was common, but doctor said last time that when my progesterone went to 8 she knew I was going to lose the baby. Does the heartbeat trump the progesterone?!

  12. I had my 6.5 week US and I measured at 7 weeks! Heartbeat was 144. I was on cloud nine. Doctor said it looked great. Of course, then fertility nurse called to say my progesterone dropped to 10.1. It was moving steadily up 16-17-18 when I was testing before. Testing always happened in the morning before; this was right after lunch. I’ve read things that say it can drop really significantly in a day. Nurse said not to worry; that is was common, but doctor said last time that when my progesterone went to 8 she knew I was going to lose the baby. Does the heartbeat trump the progesterone?!

  13. Thanks!!
    Awesome that you wrote up a whole review on this!… I’m a doctor (not obstetrics though) And just as OCD as can be… If you hadn’t wrote this up I’d have to find the articles myself!
    In fact you have done such a great job that you should consider writing a popular science type book!

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  15. THANK YOU. I’m 41 and 7w pregnant. I’m a scientist and get incredibly frustrated with not having accurate numbers. I really appreciate you pulling together this information.

  16. Thank you, I haven’t had a miscarriage yet (luckily), two children no problem (one at 31, one at 35), but now unplanned, and at a not very convenient time am pregnant (or very suspiciously so, waiting with a test for another 2 weeks just in case) with a 3rd one. (Feeling sick, extremely tired, even falling asleep, very emotional, period very late, though originally thought it was because of stress, as something else going on… but now I am getting more and more sure I must be.) I am not sure about a 3rd baby, our lives is not quite in the right place for a baby (when is it, ever, right?), and I am knackered with the two other. In the same time I was slightly tempted before, as hormones are hard to beat, and of course it is a miracle every time. But with no help, and both of us working (and I want to keep doing that)… Anyway, now both panicky, and also feeling guilty and worried, I am 38, and if I do loose it I will blame myself for wishing it away…. Crazy, not logical at all, I know! But just looking for logical, fairly clear percentages, and this has really helped, thank you! If there is a baby, I can’t stand the thought of loosing it, if it goes, I don’t really want to know there ever was one. Also just feeling I had it two lucky with no problems (apart from the usual) the first 2 times, and 2 healthy kids… afraid of being unlucky the 3rd time. Ok, so thank you basically for this post, also for the possibility to get rid of my silly thoughts!

  17. Pingback: Risk and Chances of Miscarriage at 6 Weeks | Ovulation Guide

  18. Thank you so much for researching and posting this. Not as reassuring as I would like (being 41 and only 4.5 weeks pregnant with a 44 year old partner) but it’s good to be prepared with the likelihoods. Thanks again.

  19. I’m 27 and my husband is 28 I was 9 weeks pregnant when I had a miscarriage, we had ultra sound at week 7 and the heart beat was 119 and at week 8 it was 136 , my hcg level was 9000 something, suddenly I started spotting and then they confirmed it. I don’t really get it . I blame it on coffee but I only had one cup a day , I wasn’t holding heavy things I was eating healthy, I don’t get it . And I saw the baby and it broke my heart. How can I know if there is something physically wrong or its just natural and it happened .please advise.

    • Hey Maha, I had a miscarriage last week at exactly 12 weeks and 2 days. The baby measured 12 weeks and 1 day and was perfectly formed but the heart had stopped. I saw a good strong heartbeat at 8 weeks and 1 day. I am 29 years old, no diabetes, or other health problems, I weigh 123lbs at 5’2, I took the vitamins and did everything right, my husband is 30yrs old, and we have a healthy almost two year old as well. I find very little comfort in believing that I am supposedly that 1%-2% chance. I too saw the baby perfectly formed 12 week baby, and also broke my heart as well. I also had one cup of coffee a day and one of my many thoughts is that it was the coffee, or the two bites of medium rare steak, or….I don’t know but I know this is really hard! Especially because there is this big long list of things not to do, but then when you have a miscarriage they say it was none of those things that caused it? I am sorry for your loss.

  20. I’ve tried to look up this study “Spontaneous abortion rate and advanced maternal age: consequences for prenatal diagnosis” with no luck (other than finding the abstract). Do you know whether age is age at conception/current age/age at expected delivery? Also, do you know if 37 falls into the 35-37 category or the 37-39 category? Thanks for this amazing website…it’s so helpful!

  21. Thanks for you’re article, it’s helped put my mind at rest. I’m 9 weeks into my second pregnancy, first ended in Mmc . Baby died at 6+5 but wasn’t discovered until 9 +5 due to a scan. I’ve seen a heartbeat at 7 weeks so can only pray that it’s still there in a few weeks when I go to my 12 week scan

  22. What about if pgs says embroyo has correct number of chromosomes and heartbeat detected at 6 weeks ?

    In other words all other things being equal and heartbeat at 6 weeks, does embroyo having correct number of chromosomes decrease odds of miscarriage ?

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  24. Hi thank you for this article. I’m over 40 and have had 6 miscarriages just in the last year! All early before 7 weeks. Now I’m 7 w 3 d and being tested closely. Heartbeat yesterday was 145 and so far ok. But my risks according to all charts are nearly 100% lol so I’m like not even believing until after this one is born!

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  26. Just had my scan at 8 weeks (they thought I was 12 based on LMP but I knew I was 8!) and saw the heart beat 😀

    Thank you so much for this website, I found it so reassuring when I was worrying.

    Much better than reading the forums where people ask ‘does miscarriage risk drop after seeing a heart beat’ and mums respond by listing all of their miscarriages :/

    Many many thanks, I really needed to feel reassured 🙂

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  30. Dear Amy,

    I am a Chinese in Hong Kong. I am 44 and at week 8, 5 days. Heartbeats was detected since 6.5 week and 8.3 week at over 100 heart rate per minute. Too bad, my doctor said he did not record the exact heart beat for me. As long as he knew it was over 100, he felt it’s fine. I have miscarriages x 2 in 2012 and June 2016. According to my case – old age, prior miscarriages, but have heartbeat this time, how is my chances of miscarriage ? Moreover, I am so worried, because I started brown discharge 2 days ago.

  31. Thank you so much for putting this together. I find it somewhat ironic that we can know so much about something over which we have no control, and I would dearly love to be one of those people who didn’t need to read all of this and was just able to say ‘what will be will be.’ However I am not, and find comfort in all of your statistics. I really do appreciate the time you have taken to do this. Fingers crossed for everyone reading x

  32. Such a helpful website. Thank you so much for taking the time to put this together. you’re absolutely right. there are a ton of misinformation out there with little reference to back up data, so finding this makes me truly happy. You’re helping a lot of mamas-to-be with this info.

  33. hi! my name is Alex I am 21 years old and I’m pregnant. I had a positive pregnancy test done on Dec.19. I went in for my first ultrasound at what supposed to be 8 weeks only to find out baby measured at 6 weeks and 1 day. Doctor told me I had a abnormal sac and that the fetus was too small. I had my first hcg test on Thursday. 1/26 it was (56,808) which was high for 6 weeks but no heartbeat they told me to go in on Saturday 1/28 it went down to (42,763) they immediately send me a message saying I had a miscarriage and to expect bleeding in the past days. Fast forward to today I have no bleeding no spotting no pain I actually feel more pregnant than before. what are my chances of my hcg level going up and finding a heartbeat and a growing fetus at 7 weeks ? Please Help. I’m stressed and I need hope .
    Thankyou

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  36. Hi,
    Many thanks for your compilation of data! Have you come across any similar statistics for egg donor conceived pregnancies, particularly with young donors and 40+ recipients?
    Cheers
    Jaz

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  39. Thanks for unpacking the research. Do you have any figures relating to donor eggs from young (under 30) donors

  40. Pingback: Lies, Damned Lies, and Miscarriage Statistics | Expecting Science – Surviving Miscarriage Together

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  42. Great article! That’s really put my mind at ease if only because I have a better sense of the odds involved. I wonder if you came across any studies involving miscarriage rates among women with twins. My wife (38 yrs old) just had an ultrasound that revealed DCDA twins at 7 weeks. It’s my understanding that twins present an increased risk of quite a few complications so I’m trying to place our situation in the set of stats.

  43. Is there any data for miscarriage given an embroyo passed genetic screening and implanted and passed normal hcg level on day 14 test ?

    I read a study somewhere that said miscarriage rate was high if hcg below certain level on day 14.